Image here, via Bruce Schneier

So, jaylake points me to an interesting article by Thomas Friedman. Now, Friedman has a tendency to say things that sound profound but really aren't. However, in this case, he's saying something that actually is profound.

You don't have to believe in global warming to support a carbon tax.

Now, a carbon tax or its kissing cousin, a cap-and-trade on carbon emissions, is a feature of all the climate and energy bills working their way through Congress. These concepts have a simple goal - encourage the development of alternative energy sources by raising the price of carbon-based sources.

The fact that raising the price of energy is the only way Americans will conserve it should be obvious. Remember all the way back to August, 2008? Gas was $4/gallon, and hybrid cars were selling above list price if you could find them at all. Then, more recently, gas prices slumped, as did sales of hybrids. On the electrical power front, coal-fired power plants are always going to be the cheapest kind of power plant to build.

But, you say, if global warming is a hoax, who cares?

Friedman says, "According to the 2006 U.N. population report, “The world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion ... passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the total size of the world population in 1950."

Given this, even at current per-capita levels of energy use, we're going to need more energy. Except that there are a billion Chinese and over half-a-billion Indians who'd like to have a car and fly to the beach for the weekend. So, per-capita energy use levels are going to go up.

They are going to buy this energy from somebody. Right now, a lot of this energy comes from Saudi Arabia and other places full of people who don't like us. How much richer do we want these folks to get?

So, you may have heard that Obama and Eric Holder have decided to try some of the 9/11 terrorists in civilian court in New York. As expected, the Usual Suspects are having a cow about it. A helpful corrective to this are the prepared remarks of Eric Holder given this morning to the Senate Judicial Committee. Key points:

The 9/11 attacks were both an act of war and a violation of our federal criminal law, and they could have been prosecuted in either federal courts or military commissions. Courts and commissions are both essential tools in our fight against terrorism. Therefore, at the outset of my review of these cases, I had no preconceived views as to the merits of either venue, and in fact on the same day that I sent these five defendants to federal court, I referred five others to be tried in military commissions. I am a prosecutor, and as a prosecutor my top priority was simply to select the venue where the government will have the greatest opportunity to present the strongest case in the best forum.

Also:

Three weeks ago, I had the honor of joining the President at Dover Air Force Base for the dignified transfer of the remains of eighteen Americans, including three DEA agents, who lost their lives to the war in Afghanistan.

Later:

I know that we are at war.

Prosecuting the 9/11 defendants in federal court does not represent some larger judgment about whether or not we are at war. We are at war, and we will use every instrument of national power - civilian, military, law enforcement, intelligence, diplomatic, and others - to win.

I took the day off from work, which proved good in that it allowed me to take a greatly-needed nap. But I did get some writing done.

Word Count for Einstein's War
Complete (9,603) Goal (80,000)
12% complete
Word Count This Session = 1,038

So, I'm back from Windycon. It's the second year in this hotel, and a number of valuable lessons were learned and applied. Based on a conversation with one of the con-runners, I learned that their are two types of space needs - transient (panels, concerts, etc.) and permanent (dealers' room, art show). The hotel has two blocks of convention space, one on either side of the lobby. This year, unlike last year, the con put all the temporary stuff on one block and the permanent stuff in the other block.

It worked out really well. One of last year's problems was that trying to get from one panel to another meant fighting your way through a crowded lobby. That issue completely went away. The only issue with space was the "desk" area. This is the part of the con where all the groups rent a desk to plug their cons and where the writers have signings. That ended up over on the permanent side, which was less traveled. My con-runner source tells me that will be fixed next year.

I had two panels. The Saturday one on "Victorian Lady Adventurers" went well. My Sunday panel on "Being a Survivor" was a bit more sparsely-attended (a "feature" of that time slot) and got bogged down a bit in the "have six months' food in your basement" weeds. Mike Williamson in particular is a bit of a survivalist, but we managed to pull up and produce an entertaining time.

Lastly, while taking a shower this morning, I came up with a title for my previously-untitled space opera. The working title will now be "Einstein's War." It works in two regards - one of the human ships is the SS Albert Einstein, and the aliens have FTL drives, which Einstein tells us is impossible.

I'm going to Windycon for the weekend. It's not a long trip - I can see the hotel from my office window! In the meantime, a contradiction and a complication.

The contradiction

The current crop of conservatives must hold two contradictory ideas:

One - The US government is so inept that they can't possibly provide health care to the uninsured, and there is no way that we can afford to spend a trillion dollars trying.

Two - the US government is so effective and competent that, by force of arms, it can install representative democracy in two countries, neither of which have a tradition of democracy and one of which wasn't even a country in living memory. Not only that, but we can sustain the multi-trillion-dollar cost indefinitely.

(Source: here, via jaylake)

The Complication

Afghanistan is a place that lacks easy solutions. Per this lengthy article, re-establishing the semi-feudal government that ran it from 1930 to 1970 may be the best we can do, and even that's not going to be easy.

ETA I hate to observe problems without at least considering a solution. Fortunately I found this idea for local development using local councils. It's an action plan that fits into Afghanistan's historical decentralization. The money quote from the article? "“You don’t steal from yourself."

I’ve never met Cherie Priest, but if her blog is anything to go by, she would be as entertaining in person as her books are. Since I just finished reading what might be her breakthrough novel, Boneshaker (Sci Fi Essential Books), let me say that she would be very entertaining indeed.

Cherie, who hangs out with the science fiction folks, produced a trio of southern-fried Gothic novels (Four and Twenty Blackbirds and two sequels) a few years ago. With her latest book, Boneshaker, she moves squarely into science fiction, writing a “steampunk with zombies!” novel. It’s set in her adopted hometown of Seattle circa 1880.

But her “circa” is much different than ours. The Civil War is still raging back east, and Seattle is a territory. Gold was discovered in what is still Russian Alaska at the start of the Civil War, and one Leviticus Blue was given a contract by the Russians to build a gold-digging machine he called “Boneshaker.” During an unscheduled (or at least unannounced) test, the Boneshaker rips up a chunk of downtown Seattle, including a surprisingly high percentage of the town’s bank basements.

The Boneshaker also causes the release of a toxic gas that kills most and turns the rest into zombies. Seattle is hastily evacuated and walled off. A young boy of fifteen, Zeke Wilkes, born just after the evacuation, decides to sneak back into the walled-off zombie area of town, on a mission that’s only clear if you’re fifteen. His mother, Briar Wilkes, decides to go in after him, and, trading on her father’s name, enlists a local zeppelin captain to get her in and out.

To say the novel moves along briskly is an understatement; “rocket-propelled” is more accurate. But this isn’t just a roller-coaster ride. Briar and Zeke are well-developed characters, as are the supporting players. Although Briar and Zeke are very resourceful, a good quality to have if you’re in zombie country, neither are they invincible. The world-building is first-rate, and the images created the author are memorable. Although the book is not intended for a young adult audience, it would be enjoyable to the teenager on your Christmas list.

Bottom line – Cherie Priest hit this one out of the ball park.

Full Disclosure: I purchased the book at retail. Link leads to Amazon Associates.

I couldn't think of anything that would be better to post today then this:

President Obama's remarks at the Fort Hood shooting memorial service.

Full transcript here.

NaNoWrMo, hereafter "NaNo," refers to National Novel Writing Month, which is the month of November. The idea is for all the budding novelists in the world to write 50,000 words by month end.

I always thought NaNo was a gimmick, like wearing a rubber band around your wrist to stop smoking. Like any gimmick, it can be good or bad.

For beginning novelists, one of the big obstacles is “get the damn manuscript done,” a close cousin to "I'll write a novel someday." NaNo can help make that happen, or at least get you in sight of the target. Another beginning novelist trap is the "must have perfect Chapter 1" concept. In this trap, the novelist keeps going back to revise Chapter 1, and never even starts chapter 10. Cranking out 50K words will put that bug to rest.

But all gimmicks have limitations. NaNo's limitation is when people assume that the 50K words they just puked onto the page are the Next Great American Masterpiece. They are not - and they are probably not even a finished work.

Assuming otherwise can get you into trouble.

So, the great John Scalzi links to a New York Times navel-gazer about the decline and fall of the bachelor pad. We both find this interesting in that, for a fraction of what the young studs in the article were paying for rent, we're paying in mortgages. For nicer places. And in my case, I'm not living out in Lower Slobovia.

I've spoken of the need for nuclear energy if we're really going to get serious about global warming and greenhouse gases. It's one of the few points of agreement I have with the Republicans. However, part of the reason we don't have more nukes in the US is that they are damned expensive to build. But France has a lot, you say. Well, yes - and the Government pays to build them. Hint to the Republicans - not every problem can be fixed with a tax credit.

So, this past weekend was the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Here's proof, if more were needed, that sometimes great things happen due to small accidents. It seems that the initial lifting of travel restrictions to the West was a mistake. Some rather anonymous East German government PR flack Gunter Schabowski, a senior official, was going on TV, and just prior to airtime was handed a note saying "travel restrictions will be revised." He was asked when, and not knowing better, said, "immediately." The floodgates opened that night. (Updated - hat tip bdunbar)

Lastly, presented without comment, how all revolutions end. (Hat tip jaylake)

I think everybody's heard about the shooting at Fort Hood yesterday. A few comments:

1) It has been common practice in Western militaries that soldiers in garrison are not under arms. As that somewhat anachronistic phrasing may suggest, that's partially a tradition in peace and war going back to at least the 1800s. This is for a number of reasons, including:
- avoiding accidental weapons discharges
- simple convenience (most soldiers have a rifle, not a pistol)
- bureaucratic control. The soldier signed for a specific rifle, and providing secure storage everywhere for a selection of visually identical weapons might be an issue.

2) Major Hasan, the suspected shooter, was a career Army officer. He commissioned in 1995 from Virginia Tech. This shooting may be politically motivated, but it's also possible that, as per this list of six other shootings, Hasan was just a lone nut.

3) The usual suspects over at Simberg's Flying Circus are having a field day with "Evil Mooslems !11!!" They argue that there are Muslims who are desperate to kill Americans.

They are correct. There are also Christians desperate to kill abortion doctors. We are not yet at war with all Muslims. However, over-reacting and painting all Muslims as untrustworthy is a good way to take the current whack-an-extremist war we're in and make it bigger.

We may yet, by accident or deliberation, expand this to a "war of civilizations." But if you don't like the butcher's bill from Afghanistan, you'll really be upset with that war's bill. Nor, quite frankly, do we need to go there yet.

Every once in a while I find myself mentally re-enacting arguments from the past. The last couple of days, I found myself reflecting on Obama's decision to not buy any more F-22 fighters. When the decision was announced several months ago, the Usual Suspects were upset that Obama was betraying America or some such. This got me thinking, and a rant eventually (late, I know - sue me) crystallized. Since it's my blog, you get to read it.

The most plausible near-term threat to the US is a war with China. Now, this site tells me the Chinese have "about 1,300" fighters. That's a lot. However, the US has:

409 F-18s (US Navy)
238 F-18s (US Marine Corps)
685 F-15s (US Air Force)
145 F-22s (as of August 2009)

For a total of 1,477 first-line air superiority fighters, as per wikipedia. If we went to war with China tomorrow, we could trade them fighters one-for-one and still win.

In the mean time, we are actually at war with Iraqi insurgents, the Taliban and Al-Queda. These enemies field a combined total of zero combat aircraft. In fact, these forces are totally at the mercy of an aircraft that would be hard-pressed to defend itself against a Cessna flown by a guy armed with a .45 semi-auto.

Tell me again why we need more F-22s?

So, I read in today's Wall Street Journal that GM is backing out of the deal to sell Opel. I have to say that it's a good idea. Several of the more innovative GM cars to come out in the US in recent years are re-branded Opels. Also, it's hard to be a global car maker if you're writing off a continent.

I'm of course disappointed that the Saturn sale fell through. I still think that if the electric car crowd wants to get serious about moving vehicles, buying Saturn was a golden opportunity. On a personal note, I own a Saturn Vue hybrid. Since I bought it on a zero percent interest and it will soon be paid for, I will be keeping it for a while, but it would be nice to not have an orphan vehicle.

I guess you win some and you loose some.

So, thanks to the magic of DVRs, I just finished watching Ken Burn's magnificent documentary The National Parks: America's Best Idea. It's a six-part series on how the National Park system was created, protected, and made accessible to Americans. Having just got back from seeing two National Parks, both (or so I learned) saved by Theodore Roosevelt and John Muir, it was an especially timely piece of programming.

I've had various discussions with people who argue that "government can't do anything right" and that "private enterprise is always better." I've always thought these folks were obviously and provably wrong. Both the documentary and my recent trip provided reinforcement to that opinion. The Grand Canyon was repeatedly threatened by dams and private enterprise hucksters looking for a quick buck. Even the Petrified Forest, some of the most God-forsaken real estate on the planet, was threatened by folks looking to remove the petrified wood and sell it.

The last episode was the most impressive, in my view. It started with one of the talking heads saying, "wolves are running a resistance movement. Some of their ancestors came close to the fire and evolved into dogs, Man's best friend." The other group rejected Man and stayed wild. Man and wolf have been fighting ever since. The episode then talked about the National Park Service's changing attitudes to wolves and wildlife, from eradicating predators to the 1995 reintroduction of wolves in Yellowstone.

So, if you have an opportunity to watch The National Parks, I highly encourage it. I also suggest you consider tossing a few bucks at the National Park Foundation, the official charity of the Parks.

In an off-hand remark on a blog, I said "it's very hard to debate space policy with a Flat Earther." The problem should be obvious - without agreement on basic facts such as the fact that one can orbit the (round) Earth, discussing whether we should spend the money to do so is impossible.

Unfortunately, I find that many people seem to enjoy making facts up, and then arguing based on those "facts." The anti-vaccination crowd is one example. Another example is the anti-climate-change group.

In the book SuperFreakonomics, I am told that Steven Levitt, a board-certified economist and presumably able to do math, argues that replacing coal with ground-based solar energy is actually bad, because it increases the waste heat absorbed by the Earth.

This certainly sounds counter-intuitive, and one would think Levitt or somebody actually cranked through the numbers. One would be wrong. The folks at RealClimate, using Google and an Excel spreadsheet, showed that, among other things, waste heat from switching to solar cells is even smaller than the fossil fuel waste heat. The total "forcing" from solar cell waste heat? One / one-hundred and twenty-fifth (1/125) of the forcing from CO2 from burning coal.

It's easy to win an argument with made-up facts. But that doesn't make the winner right.

Sorry about not posting Friday - I just had nothing to say. This weekend got off to a good start - I attended the College of DuPage student production of Dracula. It was pretty good, although a bit uneven. For example, the best English accents were by a pair of minor characters. That may be a bit unfair, since the actors played a maid and a hospital attendant, both with Cockney accents.

In other news, I did some writing and world-building. jeff_duntemann gave me his very helpful "Planet Planner" Excel spreadsheet and some local star data. Good stuff, and much welcome. I had discussed previously setting the action on Tau Ceti.

Now I am leaning towards moving it out to 82 Eridani, although I think I'll have a human settlement at both Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani. Jeff's planet finder suggests that worlds in the habitable zone of those two planets would be tidally locked. I can get around it in one case (think, "Forest Moon of Planet X") and in the other case I have a world in mind.

So, speaking of writing (or writing of writing):

Word Count for As-Yet Untitled Space Opera
Complete (8,565) Goal (80,000)
10% complete
Word Count This Session = 1,850

Busy day at the office, primarily due to off-site meetings, but here's a couple of links for your reading pleasure:

1) I've become involved with Mission Outreach, a charitable group that Rotary is partnering with to get medical supplies to Third World countries. Well, they were recently featured on Chicago Public Radio (audio link). I actually haven't listened to the segment (yet) but I pass it on for those interested.

2) Elizabeth Moon, the writer, is talking about global warming on her blog. It's a longish four-part series, which I will try to read soon. Related to that, the blog Brave New Climate has a very interesting post on a "new" (actually developed years ago) type of safe nuclear reactor. The device:
a) Uses current reactor waste as a fuel
b) Does not lead to bomb enrichment
c) Is inherently safe (shuts down if coolant is lost)
d) Produces very little radioactive waste, which is dangerous for a shorter period of time.

Now, off to my off-site meetings.

So, I've mentioned that I'm working on an as-yet-unnamed Space Opera novel. Said novel is not set on or anywhere near Mars. This is a problem in that I've obsessed about internalized enough information on Mars so that I don't really have to research it. Not so with this puppy!

My first problem is deciding what star system to set the action on. Since humans are traveling slower than light, I wanted it to be fairly nearby. I've kind of decided on Tau Ceti as the system, since it's fairly close but not so close as to be the first place colonized.

Unfortunately, I need to know what stars are nearby, which led to a significant time suck of looking at star maps. The short version is that there is no standard for such maps, and trying to reduce three dimensions to two is really hard. I ended up solving that problem by installing CHView, a freeware app, and cussing at its various limitations.

My next issue was the human propulsion system. Even with matter / anti-matter, getting up to the speed of light really tests the limits of the rocket equation. So, says I, I'll simplify. Instead of running at the speed of light, the humans cruise around at 60% speed-of-light. Thanks to relativity, for the crew, the trip will be fairly short.

Not so fast, alligator-breath! According to this table, the time dilation factor at .6c is only 15%. Noticeable, but your 19.8 year trip to Tau Ceti (11.8 light-years away) will still seem to take 15.8 years. Well, shucks! More to the point, I hate the stupid idea of putting all the crew in suspended animation for the duration. If there is any problem in transit, the crew either wakes up in time to die in terror or never wakes up at all. So, now my crew will be taking shifts - 2/3 in suspended animation, 1/3 up and about.

On the other hand, all this research does seem to be shaking a few cobwebs out of the writing engine.

I met Tim Akers (timakers) at a local science fiction convention, via Tobias Buckell (they share an agent). Tim, who also lives in Chicago, was talking about his first novel, Heart of Veridon
Alas for Tim, the book has been a bit of a hard-luck story, as his publisher, Solaris, got sold and the new owners basically dumped the book on the market. That’s really sad, because Heart of Veridon is a rip-roaringly good read.

Some folks are talking about “noird” as a sub-genre. This is the mixing of crime-noir (AKA “hard-boiled detectives”) and weird speculative fiction. I really can’t think of a better way to describe Tim’s work then that.

The novel opens with Jacob Burn, hard-case operative, busily trying to survive the crash of the zeppelin Glory of Day (cool name for a ship - I may steal borrow it someday!) Jacob does live, largely because he’s been surgically altered with “cog,” which is a mixture of steampunk and nano-technology. Jacob’s city, Veridon, which is perched on a river near a massive waterfall, runs on the stuff. It’s all really cool steampunk science fiction.

To say Jacob’s life is not getting any better after his zeppelin crash is an understatement. Jacob has come in possession of a small cog device, which it seems like everybody wants to get their hands on. Really badly, as in “kill anybody who’s got it.” Worst on the list of Jacob’s new enemies is a cog machine, an Angel – as in “Angel of Death.” The Angel is every bit as unstoppable and determined as Death, which gives poor Jacob no end of heartburn. What Jacob also discovers is that it’s not only his life that’s at stake, but the life of his city.

Tim has delivered a real page-turner here, with the right amount of action and sense of wonder. Veridon is an interesting place to visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there. The amount of world-building Tim has put into this book is amazing, and truly inspiring.

It’s really up in the air as to whether Solaris' new ownership will want more books in the Veridon series. I hope they do – I want to read them! In the meantime, Tim as sold a book to Tor, so I’ll have to ask when we can expect to see that. Until then, go get a copy of Heart of Veridon. It’ll do you good.

Note: I purchased my review copy at list price. Book link takes you to my Amazon Associates link.

I mentioned last week that I'm trying to get my weight down and generally get healthy. In the comments of that post, jeff_duntemann mentioned his theory that high-fructose corn syrup is part of the American weight problem. Basically, he's seen research to suggest that fructose is metabolized differently then sucrose (AKA "regular sugar") and the results can be seen wrapped around our waists.

I haven't seen the research, so I am agnostic on that idea. (Literally, since "agnostic" means "no knowledge" in Greek.) I am, however, reasonably sure that food manufacturers have added sugar to all kinds of stuff. Look, for example, at a bottle of ketchup, and you will see fructose as the third ingredient. Since food ingredients are listed in order from most to least, that suggests a lot of sugar is lurking in your ketchup. Or, look closely at bottled fruit juice. Most varieties have added fructose. In short, part of the fructose problem is that it's added to practically any processed food you care to look at.

I actually don't consume a lot of sugared products - for example, I don't drink fruit juice with breakfast any more. I am convinced, however, that I eat too much food for my (lack of) activity level. Thus, part of the "take a walk, lard-butt!" program is to increase activity levels. The other part of my program is to reduce the amount of calories consumed, and the easiest way to do that is reduce intake - especially of low value-added foods like fries.

Looking at the broader picture, there is another reason that Americans are getting broader in the beam, so to speak. That would be portion size (via John Scalzi). The lead example at the link is of pizza-by-the-slice. From the 1970s to now, the size of the slices is bigger. Or, consider the Big Mac. When it came out, it was considered, well, big. Now, with two 1.6 ounce beef patties (3.2 ounces, or just under a 1/4 pound, for those keeping score at home) it is considered a standard serving.

In short, there are a lot of reasons we're getting heavier. None of them are particularly good.