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Here We Go Again

So, the Sad Puppies again proved that a concerted effort by a minority of people can get you on the Hugo ballot. The slate as predicted is overloaded with their nominees, despite another record number of nominating ballots.

The math is simple. If you look at the stats downloadable here (ETA download the presentation, see last slide or go here), 1174 people voted for short story (for example), listing 728 titles. Between 230 and 151 people (spread from high winner to low winner) were able to get their 5 choices on the ballot. The other 944 people spread their votes out over 723 titles.

Now the first question is this - how many of those 944 people are going to like anything of the Sad Puppies slate enough to vote it a Hugo? The second question is how many more people (if any) are the Sad Puppies bringing into Sasquan? Last year, Vox Day got on the ballot with 69 votes and had 161 first place votes out of 2785 cast. He increased his vote count by 42% from nominating to final but only got 5% of the total votes. And the final ballot had a 78% vote increase from the nomination round.

So here's my analysis. The Sad Puppies core group is 250 nominating, which may increase to 375 (50%) in the final ballot. 375 is only enough to win a Hugo if large numbers of folks who nominated stay home. I see no reason to suspect that will be the case. I rather expect there will be an increase in total turnout, at least over a "typical" US con, which doesn't bode well for the Sad Puppies.

The Sad Puppies asked for increased participation in Worldcon. Perhaps they should have been more careful what they asked for.

Comments

( 4 comments — Leave a comment )
arhyalon
Apr. 5th, 2015 04:11 am (UTC)
Numbers
Can you make it more clear where you are getting the numbers for how many votes per story?

I followed your link, but don't see any numbers posted. I know they don't release the rest of the list until August.

Very curious where you are getting the number of votes per story from.
chris_gerrib
Apr. 5th, 2015 03:29 pm (UTC)
Re: Numbers
download the presentation and look at the last slide. I'll edit the post.
arhyalon
Apr. 5th, 2015 04:00 pm (UTC)
Re: Numbers
Thanks.
daveon
Apr. 5th, 2015 08:39 pm (UTC)
Well, I was on the fence about going and now I am... I strongly suspect that I will be forced to vote NO AWARD in several categories with no other preferences listed.
( 4 comments — Leave a comment )

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This is the personal blog of Chris Gerrib, and all opinions expressed here are solely his own. Commenters are welcome; however please be polite to me and my other readers. I reserve the right to delete comments that are rude, inappropriate or otherwise objectionable at my sole discretion. The opinions expressed in a comment are not necessarily mine, and if I do not delete a comment that should not be construed as my agreement with the commenter.

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